As you should all know by now, the Buffalo Bills have hired a new general manager and a new head coach on top of that.
Both Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane come from Carolina Panthers’ franchise, so you can get a good idea of how they will want things run with the Buffalo Bills.
Below is a breakdown of where the Bills seem to be headed — both on defense and offense.
I will focus more on why the Bills are being built the way they are, but will also give my overview of where the overall game of football is headed — as it pertains to the Buffalo Bills and the NFL as a whole.
Let’s first go over what kind of offense and defense the Buffalo Bills will look to enforce this season.
What are the plans on offense and defense?
Buffalo Bills’ new head coach Sean McDermott is known as a defensive minded coach — most recently working as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. He is a first time head coach, so you know the Pegulas have a lot of faith in his abilities and leadership.
He inherits an NFL top-five running back in LeSean “Shady” McCoy and will also have a young, talented quarterback in Tyrod Taylor — he’s only been an NFL starter for two seasons. In addition to that, McDermott will inherit the best run-blocking offensive line in the entire NFL, along with a run-game that has led the league the past two seasons.
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It’s very logical for him to prefer a run-heavy/play action type of offense. For his offensive coordinator, McDermott brought in Rick Dennison, who comes from the Denver Broncos. Dennison, under Gary Kubiak, won a super bowl against the Panthers when Sean McDermott was with the team in 2015.
On the defensive side of the ball, McDermott has some very good pieces at his disposal. Names like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander will bring a veteran presence, while Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and most of the defensive backs bring younger talent to build off of. Bringing in Leslie Frazier as the defensive coordinator was a great move that will look to maximize the 4-3 defensive scheme.
Looking at this year’s draft, McDermott himself added a defensive player in cornerback Tre’Davious White. Before that, he signed former Packers’ DB and return man Micah Hyde and Browns’ Jordan Poyer right when the 2017 free agency period started.
Going back to the Bills’ quarterbacks, they’ve now drafted two backup quarterbacks in the past two seasons. Both years, however, they passed on other quarterback prospects that could’ve came in and produced day-one.
That might sound a little strange, but it’s a pretty smart thing to do for a team that is looking for a home run, not a single or even a double.
So why are the Buffalo Bills choosing development quarterbacks over more talented quarterbacks?
Most fans consider the NFL in 2017 to be a passing league. Looking ahead to the next two to three years, it appears that could and probably should start to change. The following is the list of current quarterbacks who have won at least one super bowl and their ages:
- R. Wilson, 28
- A. Rogers, 33
- B. Roethlisberger, 35
- E. Manning, 36
- D. Brees, 38
- T. Brady, 39
- J. Flacco, 32
Averaging out their ages comes to roughly 35 years old. Tyrod Taylor is 27 years old and is younger than all of these quarterbacks who have won at least one super bowl in their careers.
If that doesn’t make you feel better about the Bills’ quarterback situation, let’s look at the young quarterbacks that have been coming into the league lately — and whether they would’ve been a better option than sticking with Tyrod.
Let’s look at the good, bad and ugly for the rookie quarterback class this year.
The top-nine college QB prospects in the 2017 NFL, in the order in which they were drafted are as follows:
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Patrick Mahomes II
- DeShaun Watson
- DeShone Kizer
- Davis Webb
- Joshua Dobbs
- Nathan Peterman*
- Brad Kaaya
- Chad Kelly
Only two of them have played in a true pro-style offense. That includes, but is not limited to: calling plays in the huddle, taking a snap from under center, changing pass protections, calling audibles at the line of scrimmage and using the entire field while going through their progressions.
One of those two QBs is Brad Kaaya out of Miami, who was picked by the Detroit Lions in the sixth round. The other is Pittsburgh QB Nathan Peterman, who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the fifth round.
The Buffalo Bills drafting a pro-style QB is noted because it is very important to differentiate between most college QBs who have not been asked or done much of what has been mentioned above.
Just in case you are still not convinced, here is a quote from ESPN’s John Clayton during an interview that took place on January 18 of this year on the Schopp & Bulldog show on WGR AM 550:
"“…it’s the same problem. They’re spread QBs with three years of experience in college, and they’re not going to be ready. When you get somebody, and he’s not going to be the every down guy. If he’s going to be the every down guy, it’s gonna be a first season like Blake Bortles or somebody like that. So that’s why they can get uh ya know a guy like DeShaun Watson at their pick. Or maybe they can get a Trubisky; Trubisky seems to be the guy the better Buffalo build, the kinda taller QB with a strong arm and that. But uh, I think they’re at a better spot, Buffalo is than the teams up top. Because if you, ya know cuz if you look up and you see the last couple of years, there’s been some great defensive players at the top of the draft, and it looks like that might be the case this year. So if you’re gonna get a pro bowl player in the first two years, if you’re Cleveland, San Francisco on that. And then ya know, either Hatch it at QB or get one in the second round. I think it serves you better.”"
Clayton is someone who knows what he’s talking about, so I would take his word for it.
Now, as far as this season goes, it’s pretty clear that Tyrod Taylor will be the starter for Week 1 and beyond — if he performs well. McDermott has noted that everyone will have to earn a spot on the roster, though, which means anything can happen.
Regardless of whether Taylor or Peterman end up winning the starting job, it is fair to draw that conclusion that Rick Dennison will rely heavily on his offensive line and running back “Shady” McCoy to carry this team. He will of course also sprinkle in some play action passes.
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Remember, his offense will be very dependent on a passing game that at optimum works on precise timing and anticipation out of the QB position. That is where Peterman might have a little bit of a leg up on Taylor. Unlike other teams who drafted quarterbacks ahead of them, the Buffalo Bills do not have to try and reinvent the wheel for their rookie QB in Peterman.
In case you didn’t watch the Senior Bowl, Peterman and second-round draft pick Zay Jones seemed to have developed some nice chemistry together during that game. If you have not already watched their highlights together, I cannot urge you enough to go check it out for yourself.
Just about all the quarterbacks that were picked ahead of Peterman in the draft have stronger arms and are far better athletes than he is. All this merely shows is the Buffalo Bills are looking ahead to when the older quarterbacks in this league decide to retire. Yes, that includes Tom Brady.
It is clear the Buffalo Bills and coach McDermott do not have a franchise quarterback as it stands right now.
One thing he does have is a defense full of players ready to breakout. Let’s look a little more closely at that.
Sean McDermott will definitely rely on a lot of pressure from his defensive line and a mistake-free backfield.
Sean McDermott appears to be making the mistake of wanting to build a defense that no longer has a traditional middle linebacker on the field at all times. To be more precise, the types of linebackers that can take on pulling offensive guards, shed their blocks and make a tackle — and even at times make a few tackle for loss.
They didn’t re-sign linebacker Zac Brown, which could come back to haunt them this season. McDermott needs to determine if Ragland is athletic enough to be a true three-down linebacker or not in his defensive scheme in 2017.
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When a QB comes to the line of scrimmage or (LOS), part of his job is to count how many men are in this imaginary box. This box usually goes from the outside shoulder of the left tackle to the outside shoulder of the tight end which normally lineup next to the right tackle. This box also goes from the LOS to roughly five to seven yards away from it going toward the end zone the offense is trying to get to on a given play.
It appears coach McDermott would rather an opposing team run the ball against him than pass against him. I find this philosophy to be counter-intuitive in my opinion. Running the ball wears down a defense a lot faster than passing does. It also keeps the clock rolling and gives the defense of the opposing team time to rest.
Please forgive me now for daring to mention super bowl 25. The Giants kept the ball away from Kelly and his KGun offense. The Giants’ running the ball during that game clearly wore down Bruce Smith and the rest of his defensive teammates.
That leads me to my next point, where the direction of the NFL is headed today.
The Future Direction of the NFL
When the older QBs start to have their abilities diminish, take a look at the crop of QBs coming into the league late this past April. Do you think with their collective inability to read the entire field as they go through the progressions, they are going to make good decisions more than half the time?
These rookie QBs are why offensive coordinators are going to go back to the running game and while defensive coordinators are using Nickel and Dime as their base defensive schemes to defend the pass happy NFL. This gives any opposing offensive coordinator yet another reason to run the ball. Why? Well in Nickel and Dime defenses, there are fewer men in the box. I’ll get into that in more detail below.
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Briefly, let’s go back to the notion that one of the many things that QBs do when they get to the LOS is to count how many defenders are in the box. When young, inexperienced QBs see six defenders in the box, he will check to a run play. Conversely, when he counts seven of more defenders in the box, he will check to a pass play.
Most likely it would be a half field read. For example, once the QB gets the ball he could read the Z receiver high to the TE low. If neither is open, simply throw the ball to his outlet or check down. If all that fails or gets messed up, he is to throw the ball away or take the sack and live to play another down.
The Buffalo Bills picking Peterman is why all Bills’ fans should remain very optimistic. Nathan Peterman should pick up a pro-style offense quicker than just about any of the others because he came from a pro-style offense at Pittsburgh.
I won’t go as far as to say I think Peterman will be the next Tom Brady. I will, however, gladly tell you that as much as I enjoy watching Taylor run around making plays, I’d love to see McDermott truly have an open QB competition in training camp.
Cardale Jones is an after though to me. I think holding on to T.J. Yates is smart because he knows the system and would be an excellent call on the part of head coach Sean McDermott.
Next: List of all rookies the Bills will see this season
What do you think about the direction of the Bills’ franchise? Leave your thoughts below!