Bills Playoff Probabilities

Oct 20, 2013; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline (82) can

With the Buffalo Bills sitting at 3-4 and with the New Orleans Saints up on their plate, the Bills would much rather be sitting at a 4-4 record than a 3-5 record for a playoff run.

The rest of the East is right inline with the Bills as well except for the Patriots.  The Dolphins and Jets are 3-3 and 4-3 respectively and with losses against handed to them by the Patriots and the Bengals this week they will move into a 3-4 and a 4-4 record.  This could jump Buffalo into third place in the division ahead of Miami and tied with the Jets.

Their playoff percentage is what we are looking at.  Right now at 3-4 they have a 17% chance of making the playoffs and for the most part their destination to the playoffs is going to be controlled by everyone but them, at this point.  This can change.  A win against the Saints and moving them into a 4-4 record will increase their playoff probability to 23% which is not a big jump but with a loss they will drop to 13% chance of making the playoffs. This game is a 10% swing for them and a must win.

What if?

If Buffalo wins their last 6 of 9 and finishes with a 9-7 record their chance of making the playoffs is less than it would be with a win today, 21%.  One more game will be the big determining factor here.  With a 10-6 record the Buffalo Bills will be sitting in positive numbers and have a 70% chance of making the playoffs.  The Bills will have to win 78% of their remaining games for them to have a good chance of making the playoffs.

Buffalo’s remaining schedule is not extremely tough.  They combined record is 29-30.  There are two teams that have not won a game yet, Bucs and Jags.  The Falcons and Steelers are sitting below .500 right now and the Dolphins and Jets are beatable teams as we have seen.  The true big tests for the Bills will be the Saints Chiefs and the Patriots.

The Bills need to win the games where the teams have losing records.  They need to win against the Jets and Dolphins and beat one of the three teams that are above .500 and this will provide them with a10-6 record.

We will revisit this throughout the rest of the season as things can change in a week or two.

Topics: Buffalo Bills, Playoffs

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