NFL Gambling Tips (From Someone Who Doesn’t Gamble) – Week 3

Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble (being a first-year public school teacher isn’t too lucrative), but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. Each week I’ll pick four games plus a fifth “Lock of the Week.”

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

Ugh. After my hot start in Week 1, I crashed back to Earth a bit last week. I knew that extra-half point on the Bills line (Buffalo was favored by 3.5) would come back to haunt me…not that I’m complaining about a Buffalo win. Also, I’m convinced if Michael Vick doesn’t get hurt the Eagles win that game in Atlanta going away. I also lost on my “Lock of the Week” when the Cardinals were way more frisky than I expected in Washington. Moral: never bet on Rex Grossman under any circumstances.

This week I’m not gonna pick the Bills-Pats game. Watching Tom Brady go for 400 yards is painful enough without it dragging down my (admittedly meaningless) record on gambling picks. The Bills are 8.5 point underdogs, which seems terribly high since the game’s in Buffalo, but the Bills losing by 30 wouldn’t shock me. Neither would a close game. I wouldn’t bet on it in any case.

(Home teams in CAPS)

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos

Chris Johnson has to get back on track sometime, and I don’t think the Broncos can stop the run. I also like Tennessee’s defense enough to think the Broncos won’t be able to score a ton. I’m not high on the Titans this year, but this is one they should win by a few scores.

Jets (-3) over RAIDERS 

Oakland’s defense clearly needs some work after that drubbing it took in the second half against the Bills. On top of that, no way Jason Campbell has two great weeks in a row, especially against the Jets’ corners. I think the Jets roll here.

VIKINGS (+3.5) over Lions

The Vikings still have some talent, and the desperation factor here is high. They’ll find a way to grind this one out or they’ll lose on a heartbreaking last-second field goal in true Vikings style. Either way, they’ll cover the 3.5-point spread.

CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs

I’m just going to assume the Chiefs are going to get blown out every single week until they don’t actually get blown out. What a freaking mess in Kansas City. What are they going to do if they lose 40-something to 3 again this week? Don’t you almost have to fire your coach? Meanwhile, the Chargers are probably pissed off after handing the game to the Pats last week. I’m assuming they’ll take it out on their hapless opponents.

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

Ravens  (-4) over RAMS 

Two reasons: 1) The Rams are beat up and frankly not very good right now. 2) The Ravens will come out with a big chip on their shoulder after that embarrassment in Tennessee. This one could be a whoopin’.

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 5-4-1

Lock of the Week: 1-1